India’s renewable energy fleet could expand 80% to 378 GW by 2030, short of its 500 GW target, requiring 15% annual capacity additions.
India added nearly 35 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity in 2024. Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity contributed about 71% of all additions across the power sector, a record annual capacity addition for any technology in the country.
Replicating 2024’s annual wind and solar deployment to 2030 would expand India’s renewables fleet by 80% to 378 GW. Closing this gap would require annual capacity additions to average 60% higher than 2024 or grow year-on-year at
about 15%.
India’s power sector trajectory:
In 2024, coal’s share of total power capacity fell below 50%, and renewables are expected to surpass operational coal capacity within two years. If wind and solar capacity additions replicate record levels, solar will become the second-largest power source. However, a significant increase in renewables deployment is needed to expand their share and eat into coal’s dominance.
India’s power sector reached its highest annual capacity additions in 2024, with 34.7 GW, surpassing 2015’s record by 3.5 GW. The majority of these additions were renewables, compared to coal plant additions a decade ago.
Accelerating renewables is crucial to meet India’s goal of 500 GW of non-fossil capacity.
The government’s pursuit of new power capacity includes redoubling support for large coal plants in fossil-powered sectors and bolstering renewables with ambitious purchase obligations for power distribution companies. The government expects a return to 5-7% growth in 2025.
Global Energy Monitor reports a robust renewables pipeline, with wind, utility-scale solar, and hydropower projects on track to overtake coal capacity within two years, with utility-scale solar projects accounting for nearly half.
Solar drives capacity growth:
India’s record year for capacity additions in 2024 was driven by solar photovoltaic technologies, accounting for 71% of total power sector capacity and 86% of renewable capacity additions.
In 2024, solar PV additions reached 24.5 GW, primarily ground-mounted utility-scale solar (75%), with small-scale distributed solar also experiencing significant growth due to a government subsidy scheme.
In 2024, India’s wind capacity reached 48 GW, surpassing large-scale hydropower, making it India’s third-largest power source by operating capacity. However, the sector’s steady pace has been slowed by factors like supply chain constraints, land acquisition issues, and an unsustainable tariff system.
Capacity additions in 2024 for hydropower and bioenergy were 0.7 GW, or less than 2% of the year’s total renewable additions.
The RE narrative:
India’s solar and wind installations are primarily located in the seven “windy states” on the western side, with half of the country’s wind capacity found in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, primarily in low-lying coastal areas. Half of India’s wind capacity is located in Gujarat (12.5 GW) and Tamil Nadu (11.4 GW), with wind farms clustering around mountain passes of the Western Ghats range, reflecting its diverse physical resources and state-level support policies.
Rajasthan hosts 27% of the total solar PV fleet, making utility-scale solar farms more widespread than wind farms. The Thar desert, comprising three-quarters of the state, houses the 2.7 GW Bhadla complex, one of the world’s largest solar PV sites. India’s north and northeast regions are experiencing less wind and solar installations due to mountainous terrain, lower wind speeds, and fewer sunshine days. However, hydropower is a significant power source in the Himalayan foothills, accounting for over 80% of total capacity in five northern states.
Doubling the annual solar and wind deployment necessary to meet renewable energy targets by 2030:
GEM’s Global Integrated Power Tracker displays power projects in development across various India sources, including announced or pre-construction phases. Coal leads the pack with 111 GW of capacity in development and 29.5 GW under construction, aligning with the Ministry of Power’s plans for an additional 80 GW of coal power in 2031-32.
Utility-scale solar projects are developing with a capacity of 103 GW, followed by coal, with more capacity in the construction phase (30 GW). Wind capacity is lower, but projects slated for commissioning in 2025 could increase if built on time. GEM data shows that by 2030, 17 GW of hydropower and pumped storage capacity will be online, with plans for new nuclear power plants targeting 11 GW capacity.
