Although renewable energy capacity addition is witnessing fast-paced growth, challenges can waylay the progress.
As per the International Energy Agency (IEA), between now and 2030, the world is on course to add more than 5,500 gigawatts of renewable power capacity – roughly equal to the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States combined.
“By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand,” IEA said in the statement.
India has reached a significant milestone in its renewable energy journey, with the country’s total renewable energy capacity crossing the 200 GW (gigawatt) mark as of October 10, 2024. According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), the total renewable energy-based electricity generation capacity now stands at 201.45 GW. This achievement underscores India’s growing commitment to clean energy and its progress in building a greener future.
As per the Climate Policy Initiative, India can achieve 30% variable RE generation by 2030 (wind and solar), and 45% zero-carbon generation, including hydro and nuclear. Green hydrogen too is adding significantly to the energy mix.
Data:
China dominates the market with a projected 48% cumulative global capacity share in the accelerated-case scenario according to IEA reports.
India is projected to lead renewables capacity growth in the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) by contributing 350 GW of the 680 GW expected increase in 2024-2030.
Post COP28, the accelerated-case global target for renewables capacity remains at 11,000 GW. India is estimated to contribute around 6% of the global share. The country is credited as the nation with the steepest growth rate of renewables capacity among all major economies.
As of October 10, 2024, India crossed the 200 GW mark, meaning that renewables (excluding nuclear power) constitute more than 46% of total energy capacity which is at 452.69 GW. India takes a blended approach, with solar power in the lead (92.12 GW), wind energy (47.36 GW), and hydropower (46.92 GW) following closely.
The country operates several hybrid plants to maximize output from variable renewable energies. India is also in the process of building larger hydropower projects and developing offshore wind farms to meet the 500 GW goal of renewable energy constituting 50% of all power generation by 2030. Nuclear power contributed 8.18 GW.
Advantage China?
India will remain one of the biggest markets for Solar PV component production and may maintain a surplus for exports along with China and Latin America. However, China is pegged to retain 80-90% market share even in 2030 due to lower costs than India and the USA as manufacturing expands by 25-40% in the accelerated case scenario. China is predicted to also lead in hydropower and wind power due to large-scale wind farms and conventional and pumped-storage hydro systems.
The growth of biofuels:
Biofuel consumption globally will rise to 13 EJ in 2030 with India responsible for 60% of this increase. The expanding Indian sugar and ethanol industry relying on sugar cane and bagasse straw is the cause for this. Biofuel will remain the most popular renewable fuel in transport demand (5.4 EJ by 2030).
Challenges:
Experts, however, point out roadblocks like land procurement, grid connectivity, and the state of the distribution and transmission companies which can pose real roadblocks.
Renewable energy storage is crucial for reliability, but lack of infrastructure, policy barriers, and inherent technological barriers can hinder its use, posing challenges such as low efficiency and storage.
Cost, especially, capital costs, or the initial outlay of funds required to construct and install wind and solar farms—is the most evident and well-publicized obstacle to renewable energy.
Concerningly, the main-case renewable electricity forecast falls short of reaching net-zero by 2050 by 5000 TWh. The forecast sees renewables like bioenergy, geothermal, concentrated solar power, and ocean declining in their role due to a dearth of favorable policies.
New opportunities:
The IEA has recognized a few areas of opportunity in India, such as weakening barriers to land ownership, lowering grid connection wait time, increasing the financial health of PV distribution companies, and allowing more liberal trade to increase access to high-quality PV modules.
Additionally, favorable policies and regulations are fueling the growth of the renewable energy sector in the country. Programs like SATAT, Waste to Energy, and GOBARdhan along with carbon credit certificates for the voluntary offset markets launched in 2023 enable the industry’s transition to renewables.
The green hydrogen push:
The Indian government is aiming to increase green hydrogen’s share in total hydrogen demand to 46% by 2030, with an initial $2.4 billion outlay.
The National Green Hydrogen Mission includes incentives for electrolyzer manufacturing, pilot projects, R&D, and other components, with a goal of developing a five million metric tons per annum capacity.
Summing-up:
The green energy sector is getting a lot of attention in COP29, with many countries pledging millions of dollars to help the world transition toward a greener future. There will be roadblocks to waylay the progress, but collective initiatives coupled with positive policy frameworks and regulations can fast-track the RE adoption globally.
